Riding profile
OH-9
The question
OH-9: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 55%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.5
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-9 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −4.2 | 44.9% +5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mclaughlin & Associates NRCC | 18–Apr 20 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
OH-9, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
KAPTUR, MARCY HON. M.C.
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Kaptur, Marcy Hon. M.C.
-
Republican Challenger Campbell, Anthony Bruce
- Republican Challenger
Kinsel, Wayne Charles
- Republican Challenger
Merrin, Derek
- Republican Challenger
Nadeem, Alea
- Republican Challenger
Sheahan, Madison
- Republican Challenger
Williams, Josh
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 9
(39009)70% - Congressional District 5
(39005)30%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026