Ohio’s 9th District

U.S. House · OH-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.3%

Marcy Kaptur, incumbent
Republican 46.7%

Derek Merrin

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 54% chance (80% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	80%
Orbit	Democrat	54%
50/50 blend	Democrat	67%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
OH-9	53.3%	46.7%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.6	43.9%+2.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Dccc Targeting Team	22–Sep 23, 2026	481	likely voters	Derek Merrin (R) 48 Marcy Kaptur (D) 48	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates NRCC	18–Apr 20, 2026	400	likely voters	Derek Merrin (R) 47 Marcy Kaptur (D) 43 David Gedert (Lib.) 3	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Marcy Kaptur · Democrat

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Marcy Kaptur	100.0%	45,827 votes
Republican primary	Derek Merrin	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Marcy Kaptur
source
Republican Challenger

Derek Merrin
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 11.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 9 70%
Former district 5 30%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OH-4 Republican, safe seat
OH-5 Republican, safe seat
OH-8 Republican, toss-up
OH-10 Republican, toss-up
OH-3 Democrat, safe seat
OH-7 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026