Derek Merrin 33%
Riding profile
OH-9
The question
OH-9: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
OH-9, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
KAPTUR, MARCY HON. M.C.
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Who leads in the primary
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Kaptur, Marcy Hon. M.C.
-
Republican Challenger Campbell, Anthony Bruce
- Republican Challenger
Kinsel, Wayne Charles
- Republican Challenger
Merrin, Derek
- Republican Challenger
Nadeem, Alea
- Republican Challenger
Sheahan, Madison
- Republican Challenger
Williams, Josh
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 56%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-9 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +5.7 | 51.9% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mclaughlin & Associates NRCC | 18–Apr 20 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 9
(39009)70% - Congressional District 5
(39005)30%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026