Ohio’s 7th District

U.S. House · OH-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 52.4%

Max Miller, incumbent
Democrat 47.6%

Brian Poindexter

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 53% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (73%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	73%
Orbit	Democrat	53%
50/50 blend	Republican	60%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
OH-7	52.4%	47.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+8.5	54.9%−7.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 6 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Bedrock Polling Iron Workers International \| The Next 50 Scenario 1	7–Aug 10, 2026	866	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Brian Poindexter (D) 39 Generic Libertarian (Lib.) 1	See the poll
Bedrock Polling Iron Workers International \| The Next 50 Scenario 2	7–Aug 10, 2026	866	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Generic Democrat (D) 43 Generic Libertarian (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Bedrock Polling Iron Workers International \| The Next 50 Scenario 3	7–Aug 10, 2026	866	likely voters	Brian Poindexter (D) 43 Max Miller (R) 35	See the poll
Tavern Research Scenario 1	August 4, 2026	635	likely voters	Brian Poindexter (D) 54 Max Miller (R) 46	See the poll
Tavern Research Scenario 2	August 4, 2026	635	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 50 Generic Democrat (D) 50	See the poll
Gbao	16–Jun 20, 2026	500	likely voters	Max Miller (R) 44 Brian Poindexter (D) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Max Miller · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Brian Poindexter	37.0%	23,167 votes
Republican primary	Max Miller	100.0%	50,345 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Max Miller
source
Democrat Challenger

Brian Poindexter
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 21.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 7 69%
Former district 4 31%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OH-13 Democrat, safe seat
OH-5 Republican, safe seat
OH-11 Democrat, safe seat
OH-6 Republican, safe seat
OH-12 Republican, safe seat
OH-14 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026