Riding profile

OH-12

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

OH-12, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BALDERSON, WILLIAM TROY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Balderson, William Troy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Christian, Jerrad Shane

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.9%
  • Democrat 38.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-12 61.9%38.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.2 51.9% −13.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
36.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 12 (39012) 79%
  • Congressional District 6 (39006) 17%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026