Riding profile
OH-12
The question
OH-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-12 | 59.3% | 40.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +14.3 | 54.3% −13.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
OH-12, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BALDERSON, WILLIAM TROY
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Balderson, William Troy
-
Democrat Challenger Christian, Jerrad Shane
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 12
(39012)79% - Congressional District 6
(39006)17%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026