Ohio’s 13th District
U.S. House · OH-13
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 86% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 98% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 86% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-13 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+3.8 | 43.9%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Emilia Sykes · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Emilia Sykes | 100.0% | 62,768 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Carey Coleman | 47.3% | 20,322 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 5.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 17.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 13 89%
- Former district 14 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated