Riding profile

OH-2

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.3%
  • Democrat 34.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-2 65.3%34.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.4 54.3% −19.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

OH-2, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TAYLOR, DAVID

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Taylor, David

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
44.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (39002) 77%
  • Congressional District 12 (39012) 14%
  • Congressional District 6 (39006) 8%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026