Ohio’s 15th District

U.S. House · OH-15

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.6%

Mike Carey, incumbent
Democrat 49.4%

Don Leonard

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 55% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (56%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	56%
Orbit	Democrat	55%
50/50 blend	Republican	51%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
OH-15	50.6%	49.4%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.7	54.9%−5.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 6 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC	9–Oct 12, 2026	—	likely voters	Don Leonard (D) 48 Mike Carey (R) 45	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 1	22–Sep 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 48 Generic Republican (R) 47	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 2	22–Sep 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Don Leonard (D) 46 Mike Carey (R) 45	See the poll
Hart Research Associates	6–Aug 9, 2026	401	likely voters	Mike Carey (R) 41 Don Leonard (D) 37 Brennan Barrington (Lib.) 10	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 1	23–Jun 25, 2026	550	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 47 Generic Republican (R) 44	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 2	23–Jun 25, 2026	550	likely voters	Mike Carey (R) 45 Don Leonard (D) 40 Brennan Barrington (Lib.) 3	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Mike Carey · Republican

Primary results

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Don Leonard	52.9%	23,798 votes
Republican primary	Mike Carey	100.0%	39,446 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Carey
source
Democrat Challenger

Don Leonard
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 27.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 15 55%
Former district 2 41%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

OH-3 Democrat, safe seat
OH-10 Republican, toss-up
OH-1 Democrat, competitive
OH-2 Republican, safe seat
OH-4 Republican, safe seat
OH-12 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026