Riding profile
OH-15
The question
OH-15: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 62%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereOH-15 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.3 | 54.3% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates | 6–Aug 9 | 401 | LV | link | |
| Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC | 23–Jun 25 | 550 | LV | link | |
| Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC | 23–Jun 25 | 550 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
OH-15, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
CAREY, MIKE
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Carey, Mike
-
Democrat Challenger Leonard, Don Ralph
- Democrat Challenger
Miller, Adam Clay
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 15
(39015)55% - Congressional District 2
(39002)41%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026