Riding profile

OH-15

US House district — OH · Mixed · us oh

The question

OH-15: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

OH-15, a mixed riding in OH, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CAREY, MIKE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Carey, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Leonard, Don Ralph

  • Democrat Challenger

    Miller, Adam Clay

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.3%
  • Democrat 47.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereOH-15 52.3%47.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.6 51.9% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 15 (39015) 55%
  • Congressional District 2 (39002) 41%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026