Riding profile

MI-3

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MI-3, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHOLTEN, HILLARY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Scholten, Hillary

  • Republican Challenger

    Cushman, Ryan

  • Republican Challenger

    Deboer, Terri

  • Republican Challenger

    Markey, Michael Jay Mr. Jr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.3%
  • Republican 41.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-3 58.3%41.6%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.4 46.6% −5.1 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026