Riding profile

MI-3

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.7%

    Hillary Scholten incumbent

  • Republican 38.5%

    Terri Deboer

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-3 60.7%38.5%0.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +6.4 44.9% −6.4 5.1% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-3, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHOLTEN, HILLARY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Scholten, Hillary 100.0%

110,114 votes

Republican primary

Winner

DeBoer, Terri 78.6%

53,864 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Scholten, Hillary

  • Republican Challenger

    Deboer, Terri

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026