Winner
Vukasovich, Christian 100.0%
Riding profile
MI-5
The question
MI-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMI-5 | 61.2% | 38.7% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +16.2 | 54.3% −15.6 | 5.1% −5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MI-5, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
WALBERG, TIMOTHY L REP
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Walberg, Tim 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Walberg, Timothy L Rep
-
Democrat Challenger Vukasovich, Christian A
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026