Riding profile

MI-12

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
55.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 76.4%

    Rashida Tlaib incumbent

  • Republican 20.5%

    James D. Hooper

  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-12 76.4%20.5%3.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +22.1 44.9% −24.4 5.1% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-12, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TLAIB, RASHIDA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Tlaib, Rashida 73.9%

102,510 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Hooper, James D. 100.0%

24,587 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tlaib, Rashida

  • Republican Open seat

    Hooper, James D.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
44.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026