Riding profile

MI-12

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-12: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MI-12, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 74% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TLAIB, RASHIDA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tlaib, Rashida

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 74.0%
  • Republican 23.6%
  • Other 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-12 74.0%23.6%2.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +22.1 46.6% −23.1 5.4% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
44.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026