Riding profile

MI-6

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 68.8%

    Debbie Dingell incumbent

  • Republican 30.0%

    Heather Smiley

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-6 68.8%30.0%1.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +14.5 44.9% −14.9 5.1% −3.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-6, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 69% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DINGELL, DEBBIE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Dingell, Debbie 100.0%

149,995 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Smiley, Heather 100.0%

47,265 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Dingell, Debbie

  • Republican Open seat

    Smiley, Heather

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
27.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026