Riding profile

MI-11

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MI-11, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STEVENS, HALEY

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Stevens, Haley

  • Democrat Open seat

    Baker, Stu

  • Democrat Open seat

    Farooqi, Aisha

  • Democrat Open seat

    Moss, Jeremy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Torres, John Paul

  • Democrat Open seat

    Ufford, Don

  • Other Open seat

    Kumar, Anil Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Steger, Mike

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.5%
  • Republican 37.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-11 62.5%37.5%0.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.6 46.6% −9.1 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
18.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026