Riding profile

MI-11

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.0%

    Jeremy Moss

  • Republican 34.5%

    Ethan D Baker

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-11 65.0%34.5%0.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +10.7 44.9% −10.4 5.1% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-11, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STEVENS, HALEY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Moss, Jeremy 49.5%

73,140 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Baker, Ethan 100.0%

49,354 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Moss, Jeremy

  • Other Open seat

    Kumar, Anil Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Baker, Ethan D

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
18.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026