Riding profile

MI-2

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MI-2, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOOLENAAR, JOHN MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Moolenaar, John Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ambrose, Benjamin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hill, Jamie

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 63.9%
  • Democrat 35.4%
  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-2 63.9%35.4%0.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.2 51.9% −16.5 5.4% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026