Michigan’s 2nd District
U.S. House · MI-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-2 | 61.0% | 38.2% | 0.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+17.2 | 54.9%−16.7 | 1.2%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.6% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Moolenaar, John · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ambrose, Ben | 44.3% | 32,439 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Moolenaar, John | 100.0% | 93,745 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 22.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated