Riding profile

MI-2

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.8%

    John Moolenaar incumbent

  • Democrat 37.8%

    Benjamin Ambrose

  • Other 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-2 60.8%37.8%1.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +15.9 54.3% −16.5 5.1% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-2, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOOLENAAR, JOHN MR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Ambrose, Ben 44.3%

32,439 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Moolenaar, John 100.0%

93,745 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Moolenaar, John Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ambrose, Benjamin

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026