Alaska — at-large district

U.S. House · AK-AL

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 47.4%

Nick Begich, incumbent
Democrat 35.6%

Eric Hafner
Other 17.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 77% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (95%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	95%
Orbit	Democrat	77%
50/50 blend	Republican	59%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
AK-AL	47.4%	35.6%	17.1%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+3.5	54.9%−19.3	1.2%+15.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

18 polls, 33 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 1	23–Oct 30, 2026	576	likely voters	Republican 48 Independent and others 40 Democrat 6	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 2	23–Oct 30, 2026	562	likely voters	Republican 52 Independent and others 48	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 3	23–Oct 30, 2026	610	likely voters	Republican 44 Independent and others 37 Democrat 6	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 1	8–Oct 16, 2026	659	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 51 Bill Hill (Ind.) 49	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 2	8–Oct 16, 2026	668	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 50 Bill Hill (Ind.) 43 Eric Hafner (D) 5 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 1	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 3	8–Oct 16, 2026	694	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 48 Bill Hill (Ind.) 42 Eric Hafner (D) 5 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 1	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research Scenario 1	1–Oct 3, 2026	1,512	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 53 Bill Hill (Ind.) 47	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research Scenario 2	1–Oct 3, 2026	1,512	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 50 Bill Hill (Ind.) 40 Eric Hafner (D) 7 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 3	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 1	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	504	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 47 Bill Hill (Ind.) 35 Eric Hafner (D) 8 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 6	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 2	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	487	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 49 Bill Hill (Ind.) 37 Eric Hafner (D) 9 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 6	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Scenario 3	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	476	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 53 Bill Hill (Ind.) 47	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP Scenario 1	8–Sep 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 57 Bill Hill (Ind.) 43	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP Scenario 2	8–Sep 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 51 Bill Hill (Ind.) 35 Eric Hafner (D) 11 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 4	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP Scenario 3	8–Sep 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 45 Bill Hill (Ind.) 31 Eric Hafner (D) 9 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 3	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group Independent Leadership Council Scenario 1	1–Sep 6, 2026	820	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 44 Bill Hill (Ind.) 37 Eric Hafner (D) 7 Jim C. McDermott (Lib.) 2	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group Independent Leadership Council Scenario 2	1–Sep 6, 2026	820	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 50 Bill Hill (Ind.) 47	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	20–Aug 23, 2026	1,872	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 51 Bill Hill (Ind.) 39 John Williams (D) 6 Eric Hafner (D) 5	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research Scenario 1	2–Aug 5, 2026	1,371	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 50 Bill Hill (Ind.) 34 Eric Hafner (D) 15	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research Scenario 2	2–Aug 5, 2026	1,371	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 48 Bill Hill (Ind.) 33 Eric Hafner (D) 15 Clay Strickland (R) 4	See the poll
Gbao	3–Aug 5, 2026	500	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 46 Bill Hill (Ind.) 42	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research Scenario 3	2–Aug 5, 2026	1,371	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 54 Bill Hill (Ind.) 47	See the poll
Data For Progress	Jul 28, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026	605	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 47 Bill Hill (Ind.) 37	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center \| Independent Leadership Council	13–Jul 16, 2026	546	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 46 Matt Schultz (D) 32 Bill Hill (Ind.) 20	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Jun 29, 2026	593	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 51 Matt Schultz (D) 39	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 1	18–May 27, 2026	452	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 55 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 2	18–May 27, 2026	452	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 55 Matt Schultz (D) 45	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 3	18–May 27, 2026	452	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 52 Bill Hill (Ind.) 48	See the poll
Change Research Independent Candidates Action	17–Mar 20, 2026	624	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 45 Matt Schultz (D) 17 Bill Hill (Ind.) 13 John Williams (D) 4	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	11–Feb 12, 2026	600	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 46 Matt Schultz (D) 39	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	11–Feb 12, 2026	600	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 41 Bill Hill (Ind.) 37	See the poll
Data For Progress	17–Oct 23, 2025	823	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 48 Matt Schultz (D) 37	See the poll
Data For Progress	21–Jul 27, 2025	678	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 38	See the poll
Data For Progress	Feb 28, 2025 – Mar 7, 2025	1,008	likely voters	Nick Begich (R) 46 Mary Peltola (D) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.1% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Begich, Nicholas III · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Nick Begich
source
Democrat Challenger

Eric Hafner
source
Other Challenger

Bill Hill
source
Other Challenger

James C. McDermott
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.2 points.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026