Riding profile

AK-AL

US House district — AK · Mixed · us ak

The question

AK-AL: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 47.3%
  • Democrat 38.9%
  • Other 13.8%

    Bill Hill IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereAK-AL 47.3%38.9%13.8%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +2.4 54.3% −15.4 5.1% +8.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

16 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Alaska Survey Research 20–Aug 23 1,872 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 10
link
Alaska Survey Research 2–Aug 5 1,371 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 15
link
Alaska Survey Research 2–Aug 5 1,371 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 15
link
Gbao 3–Aug 5 500 LV
Republican 46
link
Data For Progress Jul 28 – Aug 4 605 LV
Republican 47
link
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center | Independent Leadership Council 13–Jul 16 546 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 32
link
The New York Times/Siena University 15–Jun 29 593 LV
Republican 51 Democrat 39
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 27 452 LV
Republican 55 Democrat 45
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 27 452 LV
Republican 55 Democrat 45
link
Tavern Research Contours Inc. 18–May 27 452 LV
Republican 52
link
Change Research Independent Candidates Action 17–Mar 20 624 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 21
link
Public Policy Polling 11–Feb 12 600 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 39
link
Public Policy Polling 11–Feb 12 600 LV
Republican 41
link
Data For Progress 17–Oct 23 823 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 37
link
Data For Progress 21–Jul 27 678 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 38
link
Data For Progress Feb 28 – Mar 7 1,008 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

AK-AL, a mixed riding in AK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 47% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BEGICH, NICHOLAS III

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Hill, Bill

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.4 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026