Riding profile

AK-AL

US House district — AK · Mixed · us ak

The question

AK-AL: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

AK-AL, a mixed riding in AK, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

BEGICH, NICHOLAS III

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Begich, Nicholas III

  • Democrat Challenger

    Peltola, Mary

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schultz, Matthew Damian

  • Other Challenger

    Hill, Bill

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.5%
  • Republican 47.7%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereAK-AL 50.5%47.7%1.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −1.3 46.6% +1.1 5.4% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026