Riding profile

TX-36

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-36: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-36, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BABIN, BRIAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Babin, Brian

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hart, Rhonda J

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rogers, Doug

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.7%
  • Democrat 40.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-36 59.7%40.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +13.0 51.9% −11.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
38.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 36 (48036) 84%
  • Congressional District 17 (48017) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026