Winner
LETICIA GUTIERREZ 53.6%
Riding profile
TX-9
The question
TX-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.1
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-9 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.1 | 54.3% −9.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-9, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
ALEX MEALER 68.3%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Gutierrez, Leticia
- Other Challenger
Morales, Roy
- Republican Challenger
Mealer, Alexandra
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 36
(48036)85% - Congressional District 2
(48002)9% - Congressional District 29
(48029)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026