Texas’s 9th District

U.S. House · TX-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 31%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.8%

Alex Mealer
Democrat 46.2%

Leticia Gutierrez

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 72% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	82%
Orbit	Republican	72%
50/50 blend	Republican	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
TX-9	53.8%	46.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+9.9	54.9%−8.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team	20–Oct 22, 2026	490	likely voters	Alex Mealer (R) 48 Leticia Gutierrez (D) 47	See the poll
University Of Houston Hobby School Of Public Affairs	3–Oct 7, 2026	677	likely voters	Alex Mealer (R) 48 Leticia Gutierrez (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	18–Sep 19, 2026	560	registered voters	Alex Mealer (R) 45 Leticia Gutierrez (D) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Leticia Gutierrez	53.6%	18,703 votes
Republican primary	Alex Mealer	68.3%	15,625 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Leticia Gutierrez
source
Other Challenger

Morales, Roy

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Alex Mealer
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 37.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.3 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 36 85%
Former district 2 9%
Former district 29 6%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-2 Republican, competitive
TX-29 Democrat, safe seat
TX-18 Democrat, safe seat
TX-14 Republican, safe seat
TX-36 Republican, safe seat
TX-38 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026