Riding profile

TX-9

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-9, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Leticia Gutierrez 24%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 10, 2026 · byuniversity_of_houston_hobby_school_of_public_affairs

Republican

Alexandra del Moral Mealer 29%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 11, 2026 · bypulse_decision_science

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Buford, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gutierrez, Leticia

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ivey, R. Todd Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Virts, Terry

  • Other Challenger

    Morales, Roy

  • Republican Challenger

    Blanco, Jaimy

  • Republican Challenger

    Cain, Briscoe Rowell III

  • Republican Challenger

    Mealer, Alexandra

  • Republican Challenger

    Mims, Dan

  • Republican Challenger

    Sarmiento, Crystal

  • Republican Challenger

    Stockman, Steve

  • Republican Challenger

    Stovall, Dwayne Bradley

  • Republican Challenger

    Thain, Terry Lee Mr

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.7%
  • Democrat 42.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-9 57.7%42.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.1 51.9% −9.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 36 (48036) 85%
  • Congressional District 2 (48002) 9%
  • Congressional District 29 (48029) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026