Riding profile

TX-29

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-29: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-29, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARCIA, SYLVIA R

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Sylvia Garcia 46%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 10, 2026 · byuniversity_of_houston_hobby_school_of_public_affairs

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Garcia, Sylvia R

  • Democrat Challenger

    Johnson, Jarvis

  • Democrat Challenger

    Slater, Robert

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.2%
  • Republican 32.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-29 67.2%32.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +15.3 46.6% −13.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (48018) 62%
  • Congressional District 29 (48029) 33%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026