Riding profile

TX-29

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-29: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.0%

    Sylvia R Garcia incumbent

  • Republican 30.0%

    Martha Fierro

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-29 70.0%30.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +15.7 44.9% −14.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-29, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARCIA, SYLVIA R

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

SYLVIA GARCIA (I) 58.2%

30,803 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MARTHA FIERRO 100.0%

9,633 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Garcia, Sylvia R

  • Republican Open seat

    Martha Fierro

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 18 (48018) 62%
  • Congressional District 29 (48029) 33%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026