Riding profile

TX-7

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-7, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FLETCHER, ELIZABETH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Fletcher, Elizabeth

  • Republican Challenger

    Cohen, Tina

  • Republican Challenger

    Hale, Alexander

  • Republican Challenger

    Kalai, Alexander Zachary

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.1%
  • Republican 34.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-7 65.1%34.9%
National averageUnited States 52.8% +12.3 45.6% −10.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 7 (48007) 79%
  • Congressional District 9 (48009) 10%
  • Congressional District 18 (48018) 5%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026