Riding profile

TX-7

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.8%

    Elizabeth Fletcher incumbent

  • Republican 33.1%

    Alexander Hale

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-7 66.8%33.1%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +12.5 44.9% −11.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-7, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FLETCHER, ELIZABETH

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

LIZZIE PANNILL FLETCHER (I) 100.0%

61,930 votes

Republican primary

Winner

ALEXANDER HALE 64.3%

11,164 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Fletcher, Elizabeth

  • Republican Challenger

    Hale, Alexander

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 7 (48007) 79%
  • Congressional District 9 (48009) 10%
  • Congressional District 18 (48018) 5%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026