Texas’s 8th District
U.S. House · TX-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 88% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 97% |
| Orbit | Republican | 88% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 92% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-8 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.9 | 54.9%−12.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Luttrell, Morgan Joe · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Laura Jones | 65.7% | 27,865 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jessica Hart Steinmann | 68.0% | 42,636 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 8 62%
- Former district 10 31%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated