Riding profile

TX-8

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-8, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LUTTRELL, MORGAN JOE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Luttrell, Morgan Joe

  • Republican Challenger

    Tran, Nick B.

  • Republican Challenger

    Wilmer, Deddrick T

  • Democrat Open seat

    Coleman, Keith

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jones, Laura

  • Republican Open seat

    Jensen, Brett

  • Republican Open seat

    Steinmann, Jessica Hart

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.6%
  • Democrat 39.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-8 60.6%39.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +14.0 51.9% −12.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 8 (48008) 62%
  • Congressional District 10 (48010) 31%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026