Riding profile

TX-2

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-2, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CRENSHAW, DANIEL

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Dan Crenshaw 47%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll Oct 23, 2025 · bymeeting_street_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Crenshaw, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Finnie, Shaun

  • Republican Challenger

    Ellis, Jameson

  • Republican Challenger

    Etwop, Martin

  • Republican Challenger

    Plumb, Nicholas Lee Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Toth, Steve

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.1%
  • Democrat 41.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-2 58.1%41.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.5 51.9% −10.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
31.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (48002) 88%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026