Texas’s 2nd District
U.S. House · TX-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 79% chance (90% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 90% |
| Orbit | Republican | 79% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 84% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-2 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.4 | 54.9%−10.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Dan Crenshaw · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Shaun Finnie | 100.0% | 48,700 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Steve Toth | 55.8% | 36,830 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 31.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.5 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 88%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated