Riding profile

TX-38

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-38: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-38, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HUNT, WESLEY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Jon Bonck 22%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 10, 2026 · byuniversity_of_houston_hobby_school_of_public_affairs

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hunt, Wesley

  • Republican Challenger

    Montiel, Carmen

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hunter, Marvalette

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mcdonough, Melissa A

  • Other Open seat

    Mcmenemy, Alex

  • Other Open seat

    Taggart, William M Iv

  • Other Open seat

    Taggart, William Miskey Mr. Iv

  • Republican Open seat

    Bonck, Jon

  • Republican Open seat

    Dezevallos, Shelly

  • Republican Open seat

    Goralski, Craig

  • Republican Open seat

    Mcnabb, Barrett

  • Republican Open seat

    Pratt, Michael

  • Republican Open seat

    Rubin, Larry David

  • Republican Open seat

    Yuna, Jeffrey Michael Mr

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.0%
  • Democrat 43.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-38 57.0%43.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.3 51.9% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 38 (48038) 81%
  • Congressional District 8 (48008) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026