Texas’s 38th District
U.S. House · TX-38
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 74% chance (85% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 85% |
| Orbit | Republican | 74% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 79% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-38 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.3 | 54.9%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hunt, Wesley · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Melissa Mcdonough | 51.6% | 27,073 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jon Bonck | 64.8% | 31,855 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Melissa Mcdonough
source - Other Open seat
Mcmenemy, Alex
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Open seat
Taggart, William M Iv
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Open seat
Taggart, William Miskey Mr. Iv
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Republican Open seat Jon Bonck
source
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 27.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 38 81%
- Former district 8 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated