Riding profile

TX-38

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-38: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.6
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.3%

    Jon Bonck

  • Democrat 45.7%

    Melissa A McDonough

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-38 54.3%45.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +9.4 54.3% −8.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-38, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HUNT, WESLEY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

MELISSA MCDONOUGH 51.6%

27,073 votes

Republican primary

Winner

JON BONCK 64.8%

31,855 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mcdonough, Melissa A

  • Other Open seat

    Mcmenemy, Alex

  • Other Open seat

    Taggart, William M Iv

  • Other Open seat

    Taggart, William Miskey Mr. Iv

  • Republican Open seat

    Bonck, Jon

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 38 (48038) 81%
  • Congressional District 8 (48008) 15%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026