Riding profile

TX-22

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-22: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-22, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NEHLS, TROY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Nehls, Troy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Greene-Scott, Marquette

  • Democrat Open seat

    Thomas, Robert

  • Democrat Open seat

    Vuorinen, Pearl Ann

  • Republican Open seat

    Clark, Rebecca

  • Republican Open seat

    Nehls, Trever

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.6%
  • Democrat 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-22 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.9 51.9% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 14 (48014) 62%
  • Congressional District 22 (48022) 35%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026