Texas’s 22nd District
U.S. House · TX-22
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 76% chance (88% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 88% |
| Orbit | Republican | 76% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 82% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-22 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.9 | 54.9%−9.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Trever Nehls · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Marquette Greene-Scott | 54.6% | 26,280 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Trever Nehls | 75.7% | 47,839 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 14 62%
- Former district 22 35%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated