Riding profile

TX-27

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-27: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-27, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLOUD, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cloud, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lloyd, Tanya W

  • Republican Challenger

    Hatley, Chris

  • Republican Challenger

    Hawbaker, Brandon

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.3%
  • Democrat 42.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-27 57.3%42.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.7 51.9% −9.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.8 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 27 (48027) 40%
  • Congressional District 10 (48010) 33%
  • Congressional District 22 (48022) 24%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026