Texas’s 27th District
U.S. House · TX-27
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 73% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 92% |
| Orbit | Republican | 73% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 83% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-27 | 55.7% | 44.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.8 | 54.9%−10.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Michael Cloud · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Tanya Lloyd | 63.1% | 35,729 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Michael Cloud | 73.0% | 49,156 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 29.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 27 40%
- Former district 10 33%
- Former district 22 24%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated