Winner
CHRISTIAN DASHAUN MENEFEE 69.3%
Riding profile
TX-18
The question
TX-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 64.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-18 | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +27.8 | 44.9% −27.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-18, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 74-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 82% vote share, against 18% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GREEN, ALEXANDER
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
RONALD DWAYNE WHITFIELD 55.1%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Challenger
Menefee, Christian
-
Republican Open seat Ronald Dwayne Whitfield
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 9
(48009)59% - Congressional District 18
(48018)28% - Congressional District 29
(48029)11%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026