Riding profile

TX-18

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-18: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-18, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 74-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GREEN, ALEXANDER

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Christian Menefee 52%

6 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 8, 2026 · byuniversity_of_houston_hobby_school_of_public_affairs

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Green, Alexander
Democrat Incumbent

Turner, Sylvester
Democrat Challenger

Brown, Gretchen
Democrat Challenger

Edwards, Amanda
Democrat Challenger

Huey, Stephen
Democrat Challenger

Menefee, Christian
Republican Challenger

Berry, Allen D Dr
Republican Challenger

Vences, Elizabeth Mrs

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 58.5
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 79.2%
Republican 20.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican
HereTX-18	79.2%	20.8%
National averageUnited States	51.9% +27.4	46.6% −25.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by

Democrat

Margin

74.1 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

-15.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

Congressional District 9 (48009) 59%
Congressional District 18 (48018) 28%
Congressional District 29 (48029) 11%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 15, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026