Riding profile

TX-10

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-10: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-10, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCAUL, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mccaul, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rourk, Caitlin Mcclay

  • Republican Challenger

    Brown, Robert

  • Republican Challenger

    Karlsruher, Jessica

  • Democrat Open seat

    Coleman, Tayhlor

  • Democrat Open seat

    Eckhardt, Sarah

  • Democrat Open seat

    Eckhardt, Sarah

  • Democrat Open seat

    Marshall, Dawn Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Altman, Rob

  • Republican Open seat

    Bius, Walter Benjamin

  • Republican Open seat

    Brown, Robert

  • Republican Open seat

    Gober, Chris

  • Republican Open seat

    King, Kara

  • Republican Open seat

    Macleod, Scott

  • Republican Open seat

    Sharon, Jennifer

  • Republican Open seat

    Story, Jeremy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.4%
  • Democrat 42.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-10 57.4%42.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.8 51.9% −9.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 17 (48017) 39%
  • Congressional District 10 (48010) 38%
  • Congressional District 8 (48008) 21%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026