Riding profile

TX-4

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-4, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FALLON, PATRICK

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fallon, Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pearce, Jason

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.4%
  • Democrat 40.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-4 59.4%40.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.8 51.9% −11.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
47.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 4 (48004) 81%
  • Congressional District 1 (48001) 18%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026