Winner
JASON PEARCE 52.0%
Riding profile
TX-4
The question
TX-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-4 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +11.8 | 54.3% −11.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-4, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FALLON, PATRICK
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
PAT FALLON (I) 80.6%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Fallon, Patrick
-
Democrat Challenger Pearce, Jason
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 4
(48004)81% - Congressional District 1
(48001)18%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026