Texas’s 4th District
U.S. House · TX-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 82% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 82% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-4 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+14.7 | 54.9%−13.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Pat Fallon · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jason Pearce | 52.0% | 23,552 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Pat Fallon | 80.6% | 59,828 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 47.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 81%
- Former district 1 18%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated