Riding profile

TX-3

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-3, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hunt, Evan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wheatley, Jordan Douglas

  • Republican Challenger

    Newgent, Mark

  • Republican Challenger

    Self, Keith Alan

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.0%
  • Democrat 41.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-3 59.0%41.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.4 51.9% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
50.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-32.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (48003) 38%
  • Congressional District 4 (48004) 32%
  • Congressional District 1 (48001) 29%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026