Texas’s 3rd District
U.S. House · TX-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 93% |
| Orbit | Republican | 81% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-3 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.4 | 54.9%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Evan Hunt | 100.0% | 48,800 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Keith Self | 80.2% | 63,747 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 50.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.1 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 3 38%
- Former district 4 32%
- Former district 1 29%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated