Riding profile

TX-3

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.4%

    Keith Alan Self

  • Democrat 43.6%

    Evan Hunt

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-3 56.4%43.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +11.5 54.3% −10.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-3, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

EVAN HUNT 100.0%

48,800 votes

Republican primary

Winner

KEITH SELF (I) 80.2%

63,747 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hunt, Evan

  • Republican Challenger

    Self, Keith Alan

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
50.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-37.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 3 (48003) 38%
  • Congressional District 4 (48004) 32%
  • Congressional District 1 (48001) 29%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026