Riding profile

TX-32

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-32: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-32, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barrios, Dan F.

  • Republican Challenger

    Binkley, Ryan

  • Republican Challenger

    Bondar, Paul

  • Republican Challenger

    Carrasco, Aimee

  • Republican Challenger

    Day, Darrell

  • Republican Challenger

    Heslop, Gordon

  • Republican Challenger

    Montanez, Monty

  • Republican Challenger

    Niehaus, Eric

  • Republican Challenger

    Shaito, Zain

  • Republican Challenger

    Vaziri, Abteen

  • Republican Challenger

    Yarbrough, Jace

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.9%
  • Democrat 43.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-32 56.9%43.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.3 51.9% −8.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
45.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 5 (48005) 46%
  • Congressional District 4 (48004) 22%
  • Congressional District 1 (48001) 22%
  • Congressional District 3 (48003) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026