Texas’s 32nd District
U.S. House · TX-32
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 68% chance (84% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 84% |
| Orbit | Republican | 68% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 76% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-32 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.2 | 54.9%−9.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Dan Barrios | 60.4% | 34,759 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jace Yarbrough | 49.0% | 33,874 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 45.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 5 46%
- Former district 4 22%
- Former district 1 22%
- Former district 3 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated