Winner
DAN BARRIOS 60.4%
Riding profile
TX-32
The question
TX-32: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 4%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-32 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.3 | 54.3% −8.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-32, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
JACE YARBROUGH 49.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Barrios, Dan F.
- Republican Challenger
Yarbrough, Jace
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 5
(48005)46% - Congressional District 4
(48004)22% - Congressional District 1
(48001)22% - Congressional District 3
(48003)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026