Riding profile

TX-1

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-1, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 85-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MORAN, NATHANIEL QUENTIN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Moran, Nathaniel Quentin

  • Democrat Challenger

    Alexander, Dax Cornell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Prince, Yolanda Rena

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ray, Masika Akilah

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 71.6%
  • Democrat 28.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-1 71.6%28.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +25.0 51.9% −23.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
85.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-42.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 1 (48001) 78%
  • Congressional District 6 (48006) 11%
  • Congressional District 17 (48017) 10%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026