Texas’s 1st District
U.S. House · TX-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-1 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+24.9 | 54.9%−23.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Nathaniel Moran · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Yolanda R. Prince | 72.3% | 5,240 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Nathaniel Moran | 100.0% | 80,547 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 85.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 37.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 1 78%
- Former district 6 11%
- Former district 17 10%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated