Riding profile

TX-5

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-5, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOODEN, LANCE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Gooden, Lance

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hockett, Chelsey Alexandra

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hockett, Chelsey Alexandra

  • Democrat Challenger

    Torres, Ruth Ms.

  • Republican Challenger

    Edwards, Travis

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.2%
  • Democrat 42.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-5 57.2%42.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.6 51.9% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
29.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 5 (48005) 71%
  • Congressional District 6 (48006) 28%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026