Texas’s 5th District
U.S. House · TX-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 73% chance (90% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 90% |
| Orbit | Republican | 73% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 82% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.4 | 54.9%−10.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lance Gooden · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Chelsey Hockett | 53.0% | 5,665 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Lance Gooden | 100.0% | 52,424 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 29.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 5 71%
- Former district 6 28%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated