Texas’s 6th District
U.S. House · TX-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 78% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 96% |
| Orbit | Republican | 78% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-6 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+13.3 | 54.9%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jake Ellzey · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Danny Minton | 100.0% | 45,306 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jake Ellzey | 66.3% | 42,230 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 35.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 14.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 6 92%
- Former district 25 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated