Riding profile

TX-6

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-6, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ELLZEY, JOHN KEVIN SR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Ellzey, John Kevin Sr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Minton, Danny

  • Republican Challenger

    Stahl, Brian

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.4%
  • Democrat 41.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-6 58.4%41.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.7 51.9% −10.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 6 (48006) 92%
  • Congressional District 25 (48025) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026