Riding profile

TX-12

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-12, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOLDMAN, CRAIG

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Goldman, Craig

  • Democrat Challenger

    Morgan-Aguilera, Kenneth

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.1%
  • Democrat 40.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-12 59.1%40.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.5 51.9% −11.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 12 (48012) 95%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026