Winner
DIONE SIMS 60.5%
Riding profile
TX-25
The question
TX-25: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-25 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +11.5 | 54.3% −10.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-25, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 98-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
WILLIAMS, ROGER
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
ROGER WILLIAMS (I) 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Williams, Roger
-
Democrat Open seat Dione Sims
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026