Texas’s 25th District

U.S. House · TX-25

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.3%

Roger Williams, incumbent
Democrat 43.7%

Dione Sims

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	93%
Orbit	Republican	81%
50/50 blend	Republican	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
TX-25	56.3%	43.7%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+12.4	54.9%−11.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	17.5% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Roger Williams · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Dione Sims	60.5%	32,388 votes
Republican primary	Roger Williams	100.0%	60,296 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Roger Williams
source
Democrat Challenger

Dione Sims
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 97.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-12 Republican, safe seat
TX-24 Republican, competitive
TX-30 Democrat, safe seat
TX-6 Republican, safe seat
TX-33 Democrat, safe seat
TX-31 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026