Riding profile

TX-25

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-25: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-25, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 98-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WILLIAMS, ROGER

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Williams, Roger

  • Democrat Challenger

    Marks, William James

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.0%
  • Democrat 41.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-25 59.0%41.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +12.4 51.9% −10.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
97.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-79.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026