Riding profile
TX-31
The question
TX-31: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
TX-31, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 49-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CARTER, JOHN R REP.
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Carter, John R Rep.
-
Democrat Challenger Early, Justin
- Democrat Challenger
Whitlow, Stuart Norman Mr.
- Other Challenger
Stoker, Gregory James
- Republican Challenger
Abel, William P
- Republican Challenger
Berry, David Lee Dr.
- Republican Challenger
Dowell, Steven Clay Jr
- Republican Challenger
Garapati, Abhiram
- Republican Challenger
Gomez Noriega, Valentina
- Republican Challenger
Hamden, Raymond H II
- Republican Challenger
Lossa, Elvis Arturo
- Republican Challenger
Shlomi, Offer Vince
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-31 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +11.4 | 51.9% −9.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 31
(48031)72% - Congressional District 11
(48011)28%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026