Winner
JUSTIN EARLY 57.6%
Riding profile
TX-31
The question
TX-31: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-31 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.5 | 54.3% −9.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-31, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 49-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CARTER, JOHN R REP.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
JOHN CARTER (I) 59.7%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Carter, John R Rep.
-
Democrat Challenger Early, Justin
- Other Challenger
Stoker, Gregory James
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 31
(48031)72% - Congressional District 11
(48011)28%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026