Texas’s 31st District
U.S. House · TX-31
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 77% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 97% |
| Orbit | Republican | 77% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-31 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+14.1 | 54.9%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Carter · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Justin Early | 57.6% | 31,881 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | John Carter | 59.7% | 45,834 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 48.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 31 72%
- Former district 11 28%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated