Winner
CASEY SHEPARD 59.9%
Riding profile
TX-17
The question
TX-17: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-17 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +10.3 | 54.3% −9.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-17, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SESSIONS, PETE
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
PETE SESSIONS (I) 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Sessions, Pete
-
Democrat Challenger Shepard, Casey
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 17
(48017)63% - Congressional District 6
(48006)19% - Congressional District 31
(48031)16%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026