Riding profile

TX-30

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-30: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-30, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 67-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CROCKETT, JASMINE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Crockett, Jasmine

  • Democrat Open seat

    Haynes, Frederick III

  • Democrat Open seat

    Labruce, Rodney

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mallory Caraway, Barbara

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mallory Caraway, Barbara

  • Republican Open seat

    Daniels, Sholdon

  • Republican Open seat

    Heise, Gregor Heinrich

  • Republican Open seat

    Jackson, Everett Honorable

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.8%
  • Republican 24.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-30 75.8%24.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.9 46.6% −22.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
67.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 30 (48030) 86%
  • Congressional District 6 (48006) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026