Texas’s 30th District
U.S. House · TX-30
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-30 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+23.7 | 43.9%−22.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Crockett, Jasmine · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Frederick D. Haynes III | 72.6% | 76,701 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Everett Jackson | 57.5% | 4,960 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 67.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 57.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 30 86%
- Former district 6 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated