Riding profile
TX-26
The question
TX-26: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
TX-26, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GILL, BRANDON
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Gill, Brandon
-
Democrat Challenger Lineberger, Ernest Robinson III
- Democrat Challenger
Shook, Steven James
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-26 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +12.3 | 51.9% −10.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 26
(48026)93% - Congressional District 13
(48013)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026