Riding profile

TX-24

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-24: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-24, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VAN DUYNE, ELIZABETH ANN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Van Duyne, Elizabeth Ann

  • Democrat Challenger

    Buchwald, Jon

  • Democrat Challenger

    Burge, Kevin Beryl

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hawks, Nathan Thomas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ware, Timothy Joe II

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.9%
  • Democrat 45.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-24 54.9%45.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.3 51.9% −6.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 24 (48024) 89%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026