Riding profile

TX-33

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-33: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-33, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 69% vote share, against 31% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VEASEY, MARC ALLISON

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Colin Allred 58%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Dec 17, 2025 · bygbao

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Veasey, Marc Allison

  • Democrat Open seat

    Allred, Colin

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hafeez, Zeeshan

  • Democrat Open seat

    Johnson, Julie

  • Republican Open seat

    Schwab, Kurt

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.0%
  • Republican 31.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-33 69.0%31.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.1 46.6% −15.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
45.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 30 (48030) 36%
  • Congressional District 33 (48033) 33%
  • Congressional District 32 (48032) 23%
  • Congressional District 6 (48006) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026