Texas’s 33rd District
U.S. House · TX-33
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-33 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+16.9 | 43.9%−15.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Veasey, Marc Allison · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Colin Allred | 54.0% | 11,354 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Patrick David Gillespie | 57.1% | 5,020 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 45.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 43.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 30 36%
- Former district 33 33%
- Former district 32 23%
- Former district 6 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated