Texas’s 21st District
U.S. House · TX-21
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 77% chance (89% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 89% |
| Orbit | Republican | 77% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 83% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-21 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.1 | 54.9%−9.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 27.0% (± 0.8) |
|---|
Current member
Roy, Chip · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Kristin Hook | 60.1% | 39,779 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mark Teixeira | 60.9% | 58,180 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 26.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated