Riding profile

TX-21

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-21: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-21, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROY, CHIP

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Mark Teixeira 38%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 7, 2026 · byragnar_research_partners

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Roy, Chip

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hook, Kristin A Dr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Taylor, Gary Frank

  • Democrat Open seat

    Vanburg, Regina Dr.

  • Republican Open seat

    Betts, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    Cahill, Jason

  • Republican Open seat

    Enriquez, Ezekiel

  • Republican Open seat

    Martinez, Weston Charles

  • Republican Open seat

    Rojas, Paul

  • Republican Open seat

    Teixeira, Mark Charles

  • Republican Open seat

    Trainor, James E III

  • Republican Open seat

    Wheeler, Mike

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.8%
  • Democrat 42.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-21 57.8%42.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.1 51.9% −9.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026