Riding profile

TX-11

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-11, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PFLUGER, AUGUST LEE II

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Pfluger, August Lee II

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reynolds, Claire Anne

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 64.4%
  • Democrat 35.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-11 64.4%35.6%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +17.8 51.9% −16.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
98.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-70.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026