Riding profile

TX-11

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.8%

    August Lee II Pfluger incumbent

  • Democrat 38.2%

    Claire Anne Reynolds

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-11 61.8%38.2%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +16.9 54.3% −16.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

TX-11, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PFLUGER, AUGUST LEE II

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

CLAIRE REYNOLDS 57.6%

21,787 votes

Republican primary

Winner

AUGUST PFLUGER (I) 100.0%

59,885 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Pfluger, August Lee II

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reynolds, Claire Anne

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
98.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-75.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026