Riding profile
TX-35
The question
TX-35: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
TX-35, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Galindo, Maureen
- Democrat Challenger
Garcia, Johnny
- Democrat Challenger
Lira, John
- Democrat Challenger
Masterson-Moyes, Whitney
-
Republican Challenger Adams, Randal Haskel
- Republican Challenger
Cortez, Joshua
- Republican Challenger
De La Cruz, Carlos Jr.
- Republican Challenger
Furman, Jay Commander
- Republican Challenger
Hicks-Callaway, Vanessa F.
- Republican Challenger
Krause, Ryan P
- Republican Challenger
Lujan, John
- Republican Challenger
Wright, Steven William
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.0
- P(close race)
- 35%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-35 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +6.3 | 51.9% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 15
(48015)74% - Congressional District 28
(48028)17% - Congressional District 23
(48023)6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026