Texas’s 35th District

U.S. House · TX-35

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.0%

Johnny C. Garcia
Republican 50.0%

Carlos De La Cruz

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 54% chance (51% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	51%
Orbit	Democrat	54%
50/50 blend	Democrat	52%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
TX-35	50.0%	50.0%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.9	43.9%+6.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	14–Oct 19, 2026	605	likely voters	Carlos De La Cruz (R) 48 Johnny Garcia (D) 47	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC	12–Oct 14, 2026	—	likely voters	Johnny Garcia (D) 47 Carlos De La Cruz (R) 45	See the poll
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	417	likely voters	Johnny Garcia (D) 51 Carlos De La Cruz (R) 49	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC	27–Aug 31, 2026	—	likely voters	Carlos De La Cruz (R) 45 Johnny Garcia (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Johnny C. Garcia	63.8%	13,017 votes
Republican primary	Carlos De La Cruz	57.6%	18,927 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Johnny C. Garcia
source
Republican Challenger

Carlos De La Cruz
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 14.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 15 74%
Former district 28 17%
Former district 23 6%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-21 Republican, competitive
TX-37 Democrat, safe seat
TX-15 Democrat, toss-up
TX-27 Republican, competitive
TX-28 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026