Riding profile

TX-35

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-35: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
67%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.3%

    Carlos Jr. De La Cruz

  • Democrat 49.7%

    Johnny Garcia

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-35 50.3%49.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +5.4 54.3% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC 27–Aug 31 — LV
Republican 45 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

TX-35, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Primary race

Primary results

Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JOHNNY C. GARCIA 63.8%

13,017 votes

Republican primary

Winner

CARLOS DE LA CRUZ 57.6%

18,927 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Garcia, Johnny

  • Republican Challenger

    De La Cruz, Carlos Jr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.4 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 15 (48015) 74%
  • Congressional District 28 (48028) 17%
  • Congressional District 23 (48023) 6%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026