Riding profile

TX-15

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

TX-15, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DE LA CRUZ, MONICA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Bobby Pulido 68%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jan 27, 2026 · bygbao

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    De La Cruz, Monica

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cuellar, Ada

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pulido, Bobby

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.6%
  • Democrat 46.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-15 53.6%46.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.9 51.9% −5.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Applecart The Welcome PAC 18–May 25 802 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
Applecart The Welcome PAC 18–May 25 802 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Sep 11 533 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-18.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 27 (48027) 67%
  • Congressional District 15 (48015) 30%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026