Texas’s 15th District

U.S. House · TX-15

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.3%

Bobby Pulido
Republican 49.7%

Monica De La Cruz, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Republican, with a 66% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Democrat (53%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	53%
Orbit	Republican	66%
50/50 blend	Republican	56%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
TX-15	50.3%	49.7%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.6	43.9%+5.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls, 9 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center San Antonio Express-News	13–Oct 16, 2026	—	likely voters	Bobby Pulido (D) 51 Monica De La Cruz (R) 44	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 1	24–Sep 28, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 51 Generic Republican (R) 44	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 2	24–Sep 28, 2026	400	likely voters	Bobby Pulido (D) 54 Monica De La Cruz (R) 41	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	18–Aug 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Bobby Pulido (D) 50 Monica De La Cruz (R) 45	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 1	23–Jul 27, 2026	—	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 48 Generic Republican (R) 46	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 2	23–Jul 27, 2026	—	likely voters	Bobby Pulido (D) 51 Monica De La Cruz (R) 45	See the poll
Applecart WelcomePAC Scenario 1	18–May 25, 2026	802	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 49 Generic Democrat (D) 46	See the poll
Applecart WelcomePAC Scenario 2	18–May 25, 2026	802	likely voters	Bobby Pulido (D) 48 Monica De La Cruz (R) 46	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	10–Sep 11, 2025	533	registered voters	Monica De La Cruz (R) 41 Bobby Pulido (D) 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Monica De La Cruz · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Bobby Pulido	67.5%	36,957 votes
Republican primary	Monica De La Cruz	100.0%	30,083 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Monica De La Cruz
source
Democrat Challenger

Bobby Pulido
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 25.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.6 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 27 67%
Former district 15 30%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-34 Democrat, competitive
TX-28 Democrat, safe seat
TX-27 Republican, competitive
TX-35 Democrat, toss-up
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-22 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026