Riding profile

TX-15

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-15: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.1%

    Monica De La Cruz incumbent

  • Democrat 48.9%

    Bobby Pulido

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-15 51.1%48.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +6.1 54.3% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center 18–Aug 22 700 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 45
link
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC 23–Jul 27 — LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC 23–Jul 27 — LV
Democrat 51 Republican 45
link
Applecart WelcomePAC 18–May 25 802 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 46
link
Applecart WelcomePAC 18–May 25 802 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 10–Sep 11 533 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 38
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

TX-15, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

DE LA CRUZ, MONICA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

BOBBY PULIDO 67.5%

36,957 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MONICA DE LA CRUZ (I) 100.0%

30,083 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    De La Cruz, Monica

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pulido, Bobby

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 27 (48027) 67%
  • Congressional District 15 (48015) 30%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026