Riding profile

TX-28

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-28: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.3%

    Henry R. Cuellar incumbent

  • Republican 48.7%

    Tano Tijerina

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-28 51.3%48.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −3.0 44.9% +3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center 18–Aug 22 600 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 34
link
Pulse Decision Science 21–Jun 23 400 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 38
link
Pulse Decision Science 21–Jun 23 400 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 33
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

TX-28, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CUELLAR, HENRY R.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

HENRY CUELLAR (I) 58.1%

39,228 votes

Republican primary

Winner

TANO E. TIJERINA 74.3%

12,514 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cuellar, Henry R.

  • Republican Challenger

    Tijerina, Tano

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 28 (48028) 70%
  • Congressional District 23 (48023) 21%
  • Congressional District 15 (48015) 9%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026