Texas’s 28th District

U.S. House · TX-28

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 56.9%

Henry Cuellar, incumbent
Republican 43.1%

Tano E. Tijerina

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 53% chance (95% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	95%
Orbit	Democrat	53%
50/50 blend	Democrat	74%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
TX-28	56.9%	43.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+2.0	43.9%−0.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team	7–Oct 13, 2026	536	likely voters	Henry Cuellar (D) 54 Tano Tijerina (R) 34	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	18–Aug 22, 2026	600	likely voters	Henry Cuellar (D) 45 Tano Tijerina (R) 34 Marlon Duran (GRE) 6	See the poll
Pulse Decision Science Scenario 1	21–Jun 23, 2026	400	likely voters	Tano Tijerina (R) 46 Henry Cuellar (D) 38	See the poll
Pulse Decision Science Scenario 2	21–Jun 23, 2026	400	likely voters	Tano Tijerina (R) 42 Henry Cuellar (D) 33	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Henry Cuellar · Democrat

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Henry Cuellar	58.1%	39,228 votes
Republican primary	Tano E. Tijerina	74.3%	12,514 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Henry Cuellar
source
Republican Challenger

Tano E. Tijerina
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 10.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.3 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 28 70%
Former district 23 21%
Former district 15 9%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-15 Democrat, toss-up
TX-34 Democrat, competitive
TX-35 Democrat, toss-up
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-21 Republican, competitive
TX-27 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026