Riding profile

TX-28

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-28: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?

Editorial read

TX-28, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CUELLAR, HENRY R.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Cuellar, Henry R.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Villarreal, Ricardo

  • Republican Challenger

    Esparza, Juan

  • Republican Challenger

    Tijerina, Tano

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 53.5%
  • Democrat 46.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-28 53.5%46.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.9 51.9% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Pulse Decision Science 21–Jun 23 400 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 38
link
Pulse Decision Science 21–Jun 23 400 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 33
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 28 (48028) 70%
  • Congressional District 23 (48023) 21%
  • Congressional District 15 (48015) 9%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026