Winner
JOAQUIN CASTRO (I) 88.2%
Riding profile
TX-20
The question
TX-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-20 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +15.2 | 44.9% −14.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-20, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 68-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CASTRO, JOAQUIN
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
EDGARDO RAFAEL BAEZ 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Castro, Joaquin
-
Republican Challenger Baez, Edgardo Rafael Dr
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 20
(48020)56% - Congressional District 35
(48035)32% - Congressional District 28
(48028)9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026