Riding profile

TX-20

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-20: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-20, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 68-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASTRO, JOAQUIN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Castro, Joaquin

  • Republican Challenger

    Baez, Edgardo Rafael Dr

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.7%
  • Republican 33.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-20 66.7%33.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +14.8 46.6% −13.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
68.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-34.7 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 20 (48020) 56%
  • Congressional District 35 (48035) 32%
  • Congressional District 28 (48028) 9%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026