Winner
GREG CASAR 80.7%
Riding profile
TX-37
The question
TX-37: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 67.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereTX-37 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +29.6 | 44.9% −28.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
TX-37, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 84% vote share, against 16% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
DOGGETT, LLOYD
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 26, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
LAUREN B. PEÑA 58.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Casar, Greg
-
Republican Open seat Pena, Lauren B.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 35
(48035)60% - Congressional District 37
(48037)40%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026