Riding profile

TX-37

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-37: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

TX-37, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 19% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

DOGGETT, LLOYD

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Doggett, Lloyd

  • Democrat Open seat

    Casar, Greg

  • Republican Open seat

    Gary, Ge'Nell

  • Republican Open seat

    Malzahn, Janet

  • Republican Open seat

    Pena, Lauren B.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
62.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 81.0%
  • Republican 19.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-37 81.0%19.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +29.2 46.6% −27.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
41.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 35 (48035) 60%
  • Congressional District 37 (48037) 40%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026