Riding profile

TX-34

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-34: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.7%

    Vicente Gonzalez incumbent

  • Republican 49.3%

    Eric Flores

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereTX-34 50.7%49.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −3.6 44.9% +4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center 18–Aug 22 700 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 42
link
Ragnar Research Partners 14–Jun 16 400 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 41
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 777 LV
Republican 41 Democrat 40
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 777 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

TX-34, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

GONZALEZ, VICENTE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 3, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

VICENTE GONZALEZ (I) 62.7%

35,342 votes

Republican primary

Winner

ERIC FLORES 56.7%

20,726 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Gonzalez, Vicente

  • Republican Challenger

    Flores, Eric

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 34 (48034) 86%
  • Congressional District 27 (48027) 14%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026