Texas’s 34th District

U.S. House · TX-34

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.5%

Vicente Gonzalez, incumbent
Republican 46.5%

Eric Flores

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 55% chance (81% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	81%
Orbit	Democrat	55%
50/50 blend	Democrat	68%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
TX-34	53.5%	46.5%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.4	43.9%+2.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	14–Oct 19, 2026	626	likely voters	Vicente Gonzalez (D) 50 Eric Flores (R) 43 Eddie Espinoza (GRE) 2 Chris Royal (Lib.) 1	See the poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	18–Aug 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Vicente Gonzalez (D) 45 Eric Flores (R) 42 Eddie Espinoza (GRE) 3 Chris Royal (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners	14–Jun 16, 2026	400	likely voters	Eric Flores (R) 44 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	25–Apr 29, 2026	777	likely voters	Eric Flores (R) 41 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 40	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	25–Apr 29, 2026	777	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Vicente Gonzalez · Democrat

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Vicente Gonzalez	62.7%	35,342 votes
Republican primary	Eric Flores	56.7%	20,726 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Vicente Gonzalez
source
Republican Challenger

Eric Flores
source
Republican Challenger

Scott Mandel

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 6.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.8 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 34 86%
Former district 27 14%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-15 Democrat, toss-up
TX-28 Democrat, safe seat
TX-27 Republican, competitive
TX-35 Democrat, toss-up
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-22 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026