Riding profile

TX-34

US House district — TX · Mixed · us tx

The question

TX-34: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

TX-34, a mixed riding in TX, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

GONZALEZ, VICENTE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Mayra Flores 38%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Aug 21, 2025 · by1892_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Gonzalez, Vicente

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rosas, Etienne Ph.D.

  • Republican Challenger

    Allen, Keith

  • Republican Challenger

    Buentello, Luis F

  • Republican Challenger

    Flores, Eric

  • Republican Challenger

    Flores, Mayra Nohemi

  • Republican Challenger

    Garza, Mauro Everett Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Hinojosa, Alfredo Jr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Kunkle, Gregory Scott Jr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Mandel, Charles

  • Republican Challenger

    Morales, Mario Alberto

  • Republican Challenger

    Nagy, Jay

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
81%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.9%
  • Democrat 48.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereTX-34 51.9%48.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.3 51.9% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners 14–Jun 16 400 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 41
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 777 LV
Republican 41 Democrat 40
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 25–Apr 29 777 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.9 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 34 (48034) 86%
  • Congressional District 27 (48027) 14%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026