New Jersey’s 8th District
U.S. House · NJ-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-8 | 66.4% | 29.8% | 3.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+11.5 | 43.9%−14.0 | 1.2%+2.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 44.9% (± 1.1) |
|---|
Current member
Rob Menendez · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Rob Menendez | 68.8% | 28,509 votes |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Rob Menendez
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Rob Menendez
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Challenger
Barilla, Richard Joseph
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Rob Menendez
source
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 24.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 36.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated