Riding profile

NJ-8

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-8, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MENENDEZ, ROBERT J.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Robert Menendez 42%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 16, 2026 · bycenter_for_strategic_politics

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Menendez, Robert J.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ali, Mussab

  • Democrat Challenger

    Menendez, Robert

  • Other Challenger

    Barilla, Richard Joseph

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.6%
  • Republican 32.7%
  • Other 3.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-8 63.6%32.7%3.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +11.7 46.6% −13.9 5.4% −1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
24.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026