Riding profile

NJ-8

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.0%

    Rob Menendez

  • Republican 29.6%
  • Other 4.4%

    Richard Joseph Barilla IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-8 66.0%29.6%4.4%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +11.7 44.9% −15.3 5.1% −0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-8, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MENENDEZ, ROBERT J.

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

ROB MENENDEZ 68.8%

28,509 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Barilla, Richard Joseph

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rob Menendez

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
24.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026