Riding profile

NJ-6

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-6, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PALLONE, FRANK JR

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pallone, Frank Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bansil, Katie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hsu, John

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.5%
  • Republican 38.3%
  • Other 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-6 60.5%38.3%1.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +8.6 46.6% −8.3 5.4% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
15.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026