Riding profile

NJ-6

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.9%

    Frank Jr Pallone incumbent

  • Republican 35.3%

    Hillary Herzig

  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-6 62.9%35.3%1.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +8.6 44.9% −9.6 5.1% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-6, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 63% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PALLONE, FRANK JR

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

FRANK PALLONE JR. 65.7%

32,761 votes

Republican primary

Winner

HILLARY HERZIG 100.0%

13,055 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pallone, Frank Jr

  • Republican Challenger

    Herzig, Hillary

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
15.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026