Riding profile

NJ-11

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.5%

    Analilia Mejia incumbent

  • Republican 37.4%

    Joe Hathaway

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-11 62.5%37.4%0.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +8.1 44.9% −7.6 5.1% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-11, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MEJIA, ANALILIA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

ANALILIA MEJIA 81.7%

52,908 votes

Republican primary

Winner

JOE HATHAWAY 100.0%

23,961 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mejia, Analilia

  • Other Challenger

    Matrisciano, Vincent

  • Republican Challenger

    Hathaway, Joe

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026