Riding profile

NJ-11

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-11, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MEJIA, ANALILIA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Mejia, Analilia
Democrat Challenger

Bartlett, John
Democrat Challenger

Beecher, Zach
Democrat Challenger

Cauvin, Jean-Louis Mr.
Democrat Challenger

Chaaban, Marc
Democrat Challenger

Cresitello, Donald Mr.
Democrat Challenger

Croft, Cammie L
Democrat Challenger

Dafis, Dean
Democrat Challenger

Gill, Brendan W
Democrat Challenger

Grayzel, Jeff
Democrat Challenger

Lewis, Joseph Mr. II
Democrat Challenger

Malinowski, Tom
Democrat Challenger

Pivnick, Kennedy
Democrat Challenger

Strickland, Justin
Democrat Challenger

Way, Tahesha
Democrat Challenger

Williams, Anna Lee
Other Challenger

Matrisciano, Vincent
Republican Challenger

Hathaway, Joe

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 19.4
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 59.7%
Republican 40.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican
HereNJ-11	59.7%	40.3%
National averageUnited States	51.9% +7.9	46.6% −6.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by

Democrat

Margin

14.7 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+4.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 15, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026