Riding profile

NJ-10

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
63.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 81.1%

    Lamonica McIver incumbent

  • Republican 17.4%

    Carmen Bucco

  • Other 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-10 81.1%17.4%1.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +26.8 44.9% −27.6 5.1% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NJ-10, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 17% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCIVER, LAMONICA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 2, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

LAMONICA R. MCIVER 84.8%

38,769 votes

Republican primary

Winner

CARMEN BUCCO 100.0%

4,359 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mciver, Lamonica

  • Republican Open seat

    Carmen Bucco

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026