Riding profile

NJ-10

US House district — NJ · Mixed · us nj

The question

NJ-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NJ-10, a mixed riding in NJ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 20% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCIVER, LAMONICA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mciver, Lamonica

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 78.7%
  • Republican 20.4%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNJ-10 78.7%20.4%0.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +26.8 46.6% −26.2 5.4% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026